Population Growth

In reply to Mr COWDREY (Colton) (25 June 2025). (Estimates Committee A)

The Hon. N.D. CHAMPION (Taylor—Minister for Housing and Urban Development, Minister for Housing Infrastructure, Minister for Planning): I have been advised:

Population projections for South Australia and its 19 regions were officially released in July 2023. These are the most recent population projections and they cover a 30-year period from 2021-2051.

State coordinated population projections provide a common base for land use, infrastructure, and service planning.

The projections were developed just after the COVID-19 pandemic and at that time South Australia was experiencing interstate and overseas migration trends that were outside of longer term trends.

Net overseas migration (NOM) which is the key driver of population growth in South Australia fell to record low levels due to international border closures

Net interstate migration (NIM) was positive (1,000 persons) for the first time in over 20 years.

To accommodate this uncertainty three projection scenarios (high, medium, and low growth) were prepared using varied assumptions about the components of growth (births, deaths, overseas and interstate migration).

The high scenario population projection was used as the basis for the Greater Adelaide Regional Plan (GARP) population target (670,000 people), and for the country regional plans.

At the time of publication in 2023 it was noted that the department would conduct a review of the projections and the underpinning assumptions in mid-2025.

2025 Population Projections review

On 19 June 2025 an item titled 'Population growth and projections—June 2025' was presented to the State Planning Commission. Its purpose was to provide an update on recent population growth and demographic change for South Australia and its regions. The report focuses on any significant changes to the population growth components (overseas migration, interstate migration, births, and deaths) and how these changes may impact the population projections.

The item asks the State Planning Commission to:

1. Note the recent population change in South Australia and the comparison with projected growth.

2. Note the risks to future population growth associated with each of the population growth components.

3. Note the impact of new GARP growth areas on published local area population projections.

4. Note the commencement of a population projections review in June 2025.

The item was designated by the State Planning Commission as Not Confidential (Release Immediately). The full report is available from the State Planning Commission website—meeting June 19, 2025.