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House of Assembly - Fifty-First Parliament, Third Session (51-3)
2008-09-10 Daily Xml
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SOUTH AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY

Ms PORTOLESI (Hartley) (15:01): Will the Minister for Industry and Trade please inform the house about the forecast for the South Australian economy?

The Hon. K.O. FOLEY (Port Adelaide—Deputy Premier, Treasurer, Minister for Industry and Trade, Minister for Federal/State Relations) (15:01): The opposition has been briefing the media that it had some big financial scandal to hit us with, and what have we done? We have given money to an Aboriginal community to have a childcare centre. I mean, shock, horror!

Members interjecting:

The SPEAKER: Order!

The Hon. K.O. FOLEY: But we will have an answer on that very swiftly. That really is a very—

Members interjecting:

The SPEAKER: Order!

The Hon. K.O. FOLEY: Thank you, sir.

Mr Pisoni interjecting:

The Hon. K.O. FOLEY: Sorry?

Mr Pisoni: Give us an A grade answer.

Members interjecting:

The SPEAKER: Members on my left will come to order!

The Hon. K.O. FOLEY: I am about to give an exceptionally powerful and good story to the house, which I am surprised has not been widely reported. However, it goes this way: in 2004 the Rann government released its population policy containing ambitious targets to increase the state's population into the future. These targets were incorporated into the State Strategic Plan released in the same year. The headline target was to increase the state's population to two million by 2050. Other targets on the population included increasing net overseas migration gains to 8,500 per annum by 2014, maintaining a rate of at least 1.7 births per woman (I cannot quite work out how that happens) and reducing interstate migration loss to zero by 2010.

As we know, South Australia's very poor population growth not only has an effect on the strength of our economy but it also has a deleterious impact on the state's finances as we attempt to fund an ageing population. Some members—I would suggest many members, if not most—may not be aware of a recent Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) release on population figures in South Australia. The ABS divides its population projections into three series: it has a high series called an A series, which is the optimistic outlook; a median series called the B series, which is the median outlook; and a low series which is called the C series and which is a conservative outlook.

In terms of previous projections (and this is the important point), I know that the scribes in this place are at this moment hanging off this because it is a very good news story. Previous projections by the ABS forecast—

Ms Chapman interjecting:

The Hon. K.O. FOLEY: No, please, Vic, you've got to listen to this, this is good.

Ms Chapman interjecting:

The Hon. K.O. FOLEY: Just listen, Vic, will you? For goodness sakes!

Ms Chapman: And he got it wrong then.

The Hon. K.O. FOLEY: Just listen, please. Previous projections by the ABS forecast total population peaking at about 1.65 million before slowly declining. However, increased economic activity and sound migration strategies fostered by the Rann Labor government since 2002 have resulted in significantly improved population projections. Wait for it, this is an incredible story.

Latest projections released on 4 September 2008 by the ABS show South Australia's Strategic Plan target of two million by 2050 will be exceeded under all three series. Wait for it—having said in previous reports that it would be 1.65 million topping out and declining, the ABS has now said that, due to economic activity and population migration programs by this government, population is projected to be just over two million by 2035 according to the median outlook—not even the optimistic outlook—and 2.2 million by just past 2050. What an incredible turnaround in our state's population forecast under our state's economic management.

Series B projects an annual population growth rate of 0.68 per cent for South Australia over the projection future. No projection shows a total population peaking and declining at any stage over the projection period. Previously 1.6 million, topping out, declining. Under no scenario do we see a peak. We are continuing a steady incline in the trend graph that tracks, and it could go anywhere.

South Australia's net overseas migration is assumed to remain at 11,700 international migrants settling in South Australia from 2011. That is 3,000 more than hoped for under the very tough target set by the Strategic Plan. Indeed, the fertility rate of our state has increased. It is now up to one point—

Mr Koutsantonis: Thank you.

The Hon. K.O. FOLEY: Thank you, did you say, Tom?

Mr Koutsantonis interjecting:

The Hon. K.O. FOLEY: What have you done? It is now 1.79 as against 1.7 being the target. The truth is that our economy in South Australia has never been in better shape, notwithstanding the critics opposite. Let us have a little look at the statistics.

Members interjecting:

The SPEAKER: Order!

The Hon. K.O. FOLEY: The population is growing, but she is saying how many people are leaving the state. Hello!

The Hon. P.F. Conlon: It's growing.

The Hon. K.O. FOLEY: It's growing, but only the member for Bragg would be—

The Hon. P.F. Conlon: Nothing to brag about.

The Hon. K.O. FOLEY: —nothing to brag about—finding fault in that. Retail trade: South Australia's nominal retail trade turnover rose 0.6 per cent during July after a 0.7 per cent rise in June. South Australia's monthly growth of retail activity has exceeded the national average for the past 11 months. How's that? What about exports, you ask. Exports: in the 12 months to July 2008—and this is during the worst drought we have ever seen, so, as I have discussed previously, there has been a bad impact on the farm sector through drought—the value of South Australian—

An honourable member interjecting:

The Hon. K.O. FOLEY: What about horticulture from the Riverland?

Members interjecting:

The SPEAKER: Order!

An honourable member: They are going broke.

The Hon. K.O. FOLEY: Tell your mate that. In the 12 months to July 2008, the value of South Australian goods exported totalled $10.3 billion, up 11 per cent compared to the previous 12 months.

Our state continues to record the second highest growth of all states over this period. The quality of our economic output and growth and strength—it is just statistic after statistic. South Australia's state final demand (commonly referred to by us in the industry as the SFD) rose 1 per cent. I do not expect all of you to follow that.

The Hon. M.J. Atkinson: What was that again?

The Hon. K.O. FOLEY: State Final Demand. It rose 1 per cent during the June quarter 2008, following a rise of 1.2 per cent in the March quarter. South Australia's quarterly growth in the SFD was slightly above the national average growth for the nation of 0.9 per cent. But what happens when you see private new capital expenditure? Access Economics is hardly the most optimistic commentator about South Australia, but according to Access Economics, the nominal value of definite South Australian projects listed as either committed or under construction rose by 15 per cent in the June quarter '08 to $7.5 billion.

The value of investment projects under consideration in South Australia rose by 3.4 per cent in the June quarter 2008 to its highest level since March 2001. Sales of new motor vehicles in South Australia fell (given that there has been an interest rate increase of 0.5 per cent) during July, following falls in the previous four months. Despite this, new motor vehicle sales remain 7.2 per cent higher than a year earlier and are at historically high levels. In fact, we are doing better than the nation.

In trend terms, the unemployment rate in this state remained at 4.8 per cent, the lowest this state has ever recorded and lower than at any time under any Liberal government in this state's history since recorded data was kept. How is that for a record! Labor, low unemployment; Liberals, high unemployment.

Some 90,357 new jobs have been created since the Rann Labor government came to power in March 2002. That is 90,357 more people working in this state than when you miserable lot were in office, and the participation rate remains at its highest level.

The number of trend dwelling approvals fell by 0.6 per cent. What did ours do? They rose by 0.4 per cent. Our housing market remains strong. The value of our houses remains strong while the rest of the nation is seeing a decline in housing activity. I could be here all day. Real business investment in new assets has grown 73 per cent from December 2001 to December 2007. It has risen 20 per cent over the past five financial years. I could go on. Econtech, in its state and industry outlook report, said:

South Australia's population has been boosted by net overseas migration, driven by the state government's initiative in attracting migrants to South Australia. South Australia's output is estimated to have increased by a healthy 4.5 per cent in 2007-08.

That is a pretty comprehensive list of data, a pretty comprehensive list of statistics, fully understood and comprehended and—

The Hon. P.F. Conlon interjecting:

The Hon. K.O. FOLEY: By SFD. On any considered, objective measurement, this economy has never been stronger. Yes, we have challenges. Yes, we have issues to deal with. Yes, we have a lot of hard work to do, but the doomsdayers over there, those who would knock everything that this economy is about and that this government is about, cannot be supported by the truth, by the statistics, by the output, and, whilst we are prepared to accept that there are challenges, I will defend with every breath in my body that the strength of this economy is due to the work of the government.

Members interjecting:

The SPEAKER: The Leader of the Opposition.

Mr HAMILTON-SMITH: Just trying to hold myself together after that last remark, Mr Speaker.

The SPEAKER: Order!

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