Employment Figures

The Hon. D.W. RIDGWAY (14:40): My question is to the Treasurer. Given we now have had the federal budget tabled and, of course, yesterday's excellent state budget, can the Treasurer outline to the chamber what the employment estimates are, both nationally and for South Australia, over the next 12 months?

The Hon. R.I. LUCAS (Treasurer) (14:41): This has been the subject of some media debate, albeit relatively minor, given the substantial and significant initiatives announced in yesterday's budget. On the issue of employment forecasts, the federal budget estimated employment growth of 2.75 per cent.

Federal Treasury officers estimate employment growth on the basis of a comparison between the last three months of the last financial year, which were April, May and June and which were clearly right in the middle of the worst impacts of COVID-19, and they compare the employment in those three months with the estimated employment of April, May and June of next year. They compare the two and they estimate a 2.75 per cent growth.

If we released Treasury estimates on exactly the same basis as federal Treasury, South Australia would be estimating employment growth of 4.25 per cent—significantly higher than the national figure—which is equivalent to approximately 40,000 jobs between the end of June—

The Hon. D.W. Ridgway: How many?

The Hon. R.I. LUCAS: Forty thousand—four zero—from April, May and June of this year compared to April, May and June of next year. As has been evident for a number of years, under Labor and Liberal governments, South Australian Treasury actually uses in its budget document a different measure, which is to look at the average employment for every month in the last year. So you go back to July of last year, take each month in terms of employment right through to June of this year and then you compare it with each month of this current year from July through to June and do a comparison. It is a completely different measure.

If one wants to look at the simple comparison, as federal Treasury has done, as to what will the employment be at the end of this financial year compared to the end of the last financial year, in South Australia's case it is 40,000 extra jobs and a 4.25 per cent employment growth increase compared to the national figure of 2.75 per cent.