CARBON TAX

Mr PISONI (Unley) (14:54): My question is to the Minister for Employment. Will the minister explain why he was unaware of Treasury modelling that revealed the carbon tax will cost South Australia 1,500 jobs next year, and now that he is aware of this modelling, will he advise in which industries there will be fewer jobs because of the carbon tax in South Australia?

The SPEAKER: That was almost a question that was asked yesterday; but, the Minister for Employment.

Members interjecting:

The SPEAKER: Order!

The Hon. T.R. KENYON (Newland—Minister for Employment, Higher Education and Skills, Minister for Science and Information Economy, Minister for Recreation and Sport) (14:54): Ma'am, very simply, there was no South Australian Treasury modelling done on the carbon tax. The Department of Treasury and Finance in the Mid-Year Budget Review 2011-12—

Mr Marshall interjecting:

The SPEAKER: Order!

The Hon. T.R. KENYON: —made an allowance for the potential economic impact of a price on carbon on South Australia's economic growth rate, employment growth and prices. It was made very explicit in the Mid-Year Budget Review document. The Department of Treasury and Finance has not undertaken, I am advised, any economic modelling to assess the employment impact on a price of carbon. The assessment of the impact—

Ms Chapman interjecting:

The SPEAKER: Order, member for Bragg! Minister.

The Hon. T.R. KENYON: The assessment of the impact is based on commonwealth Treasury modelling, which is publicly available and also referred to in the federal Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, where they said:

In addition to the one-off increase in headline inflation, the carbon price is expected to reduce real GDP and employment growth by less than a quarter of a percentage point in 2012-13.

The introduction of a carbon tax is a major economic reform. Given that the commonwealth Treasury had publicly released modelling on the economic impacts of the carbon tax, it was sensible for the South Australian government to make an allowance for these impacts in our own budget forecasts. While we believe that the short-term economic impacts of a carbon tax are minimal, we have made a conservative allowance for the potential of the tax to have some impact on prices, economic growth and employment in line with what the federal government has said, and to do otherwise would be irresponsible.

The Leader of the Opposition's comparisons of this carbon price impact—which is for a single year only—with those flowing from the Olympic Dam expansion are mischievous. The Olympic Dam expansion will provide a boost to employment, not just in a single year—

Members interjecting:

The SPEAKER: Order!

The Hon. T.R. KENYON: —but over many years, with 6,000 workers predicted in the construction phase, a doubling of the operational workforce to 8,000 and an estimated indirect jobs impact of 15,000. That is 10 times the number quoted yesterday by the Leader of the Opposition.