Federal Budget

The Hon. D.W. RIDGWAY (14:33): My question—

The Hon. K.J. Maher interjecting:

The PRESIDENT: Order, leader! You can't help yourself today. The Hon. Mr Ridgway will be heard in silence.

The Hon. D.W. RIDGWAY: Thank you, Mr President, I appreciate your protection. My question is to the Treasurer. Following the wonderful federal budget last night, can the Treasurer update the house on our share of GST?

The Hon. K.J. MAHER: Point of order, sir.

The PRESIDENT: You can resume your seat. The Hon. Mr Ridgway has been here long enough to know that he shouldn't include opinion in his explanation or question. The Treasurer has the call.

The Hon. R.I. LUCAS (Treasurer) (14:34): Mr President, he just couldn't resist. I thank the honourable member for his question because I had a question on a similar issue yesterday and foreshadowed, I guess, our best guess as a state Treasury as to what the GST might look like. We have certainly now been provided with the detail in the federal budget, which indeed reflects in broad terms what I indicated to the house yesterday. That is, that the national economic recovery—and credit to the commonwealth government—has meant an enormous rebound in consumption spending and an enormous rebound in GST revenue receipts significantly above what federal Treasury was predicting during the global pandemic or the worst of the global pandemic last year, so in their budget and then their midyear update at the end of the year.

I am pleased to be able to report for this financial year which is just finishing, 2020-21, the GST revenue for South Australia is estimated by the commonwealth government to increase by $926 million over their low estimate from last year. I hasten to say that it is still $375 million less than what we were predicting for GST for this year pre-COVID. So instead of losing approximately $1.3 billion we only lose approximately $400 million. So it is still significant, but it is nowhere near as parlous as losing $1.3 billion in GST in one particular year.

Again, the federal budget papers indicate that for next year, 2021-22, federal estimates are that we will see $668 million extra in GST compared to their estimate last year—or our state budget estimate and their estimate last year. Again, I hasten to say it is still $364 million lower than what we were predicting pre-COVID. So in broad terms, again, instead of losing $1 billion in GST for next year, 2021-22, we are only going to lose $364 million.

So in both cases they are enormously encouraging results. No-one, including federal Treasury, saw the extent of the economic recovery—the rebound—and therefore the significant increase in GST revenue that has been reported last night. It retrieves a lot of what we were expected to lose, but nevertheless we are still confronted with $375 million less this year and $364 million less next year, so we are talking about $700 million less revenue that we have been able to spend on goods and services in South Australia this year and next year.