30-YEAR PLAN FOR GREATER ADELAIDE

The Hon. R.P. WORTLEY (15:02): My question is to the Minister for Urban Development and Planning. Will the minister advise the chamber of any state government initiatives to ensure that the planned growth of the Greater Adelaide region deals with expected population increases?

The Hon. P. HOLLOWAY (Minister for Mineral Resources Development, Minister for Urban Development and Planning, Minister for Industrial Relations, Minister Assisting the Premier in Public Sector Management) (15:02): I thank the honourable member for his very important question. In recent months there has been much public debate about projected population figures for Australia as a whole, as well as for South Australia. Adelaide faces significant challenges in the near future, including population growth, demographic change, water supply issues, climate change and land use pressures. Recently released statistics advise that at June 2009 the state population was 1.62 million, a population that grew in the preceding 12 months by 19,600 people, or a growth rate of 1.2 per cent. This current growth is in line with the 30-year plan growth projections.

There are a number of challenges South Australia will need to address with the expected population growth of the state. The increased population will require appropriate housing across the Greater Adelaide region; however, the 30-Year Plan for Greater Adelaide recognises this issue and includes an overall suite of measures to maximise land supply and increase housing options for the additional future population expected.

The ageing of the South Australian population, which is ahead of the national average, is also a significant challenge to ensure continued economic prosperity. By 2036 the percentage of people older than 65 will increase from 18 per cent to 22 per cent. In addition, the number of South Australians aged 85 years or more is projected to increase by more than 200 per cent by 2036. South Australia's ageing population will impact significantly on the state's workforce of the future.

On present trends it is estimated that 230,000 workers, or just under one-third of the current workforce, will approach retirement age in the next 10 years. I have been advised that nearly half of the public sector workforce will be considering retirement before 2030. That estimate comprises 46 per cent of male employees and 43 per cent of female employees who will be reaching retirement age between 2011 and 2026.

Immigration has long been an important element of population growth in South Australia. Migration accounts for about 60 per cent of South Australia's annual population growth, with the remainder attributable to natural increase. There is a risk of falling living standards or significant wage pressures from skills shortages if South Australia fails to attract and maintain a working age population.

It is estimated that population growth in the 30-year plan, taken as an average over the next 30 year period, equates to about 20 people a week more than Adelaide's current growth rate. In perspective, Adelaide's population growth in 2008-09 was 17,613. An increase in the population of Greater Adelaide of 560,000 by 2036 requires an average annual growth of 18,677 persons. The 30-Year Plan for Greater Adelaide provides the most comprehensive planning strategy ever adopted by the state government and maximises South Australia's capacity to benefit from the opportunities arising from the growth in population during the next three decades.

During the next 30 years, the plan provides for steady population growth of 560,000 people, the construction of 258,000 additional homes, economic growth of $127.7 billion and the creation of 282,000 additional jobs. The adoption of the 30-Year Plan for Greater Adelaide provides a responsible approach to sustainable population growth and the needs for housing, employment and the environment.

The plan presents the spatial and land use framework that facilitates locating the majority of new housing in current urban areas, particularly around transport corridors, creating mixed use precincts, bringing together housing, jobs, transport and services; 14,200 hectares for new growth areas, based upon mixed use development, higher densities and a greater mix of housing linked to transport corridors over the next 30 years, protecting at least 115,000 hectares of environmentally significant lands and up to 375,000 hectares of primary production land; and 14 transit-oriented developments and more than 20 sites incorporating transit-oriented development principles. The plan contains 89 targets that will be monitored and evaluated.

There are two choices when it comes to responding to our population growth: either we recognise that the population of South Australia will grow during the next 30 years and plan responsibly and sustainably to renew our suburbs and encourage new suburbs, or we put our heads in the sand and allow unplanned and ad hoc developments.

That course would inevitably lead to a community that is not properly integrated with surrounding areas, that allows the inefficient and unsustainable use of land and, ultimately, will reduce the liveability of our great city. The challenge South Australia faces is for the planned growth of the Greater Adelaide region in a way that provides a responsible, sustainable and prosperous future.