Prisoner Numbers

In reply to Mr GARDNER (Morialta) (27 July 2015). (Estimates Committee B)

The Hon. A. PICCOLO (Light—Minister for Disabilities, Minister for Police, Minister for Correctional Services, Minister for Emergency Services, Minister for Road Safety): I have been advised:

Prisoner population projections are based on a range of factors including previous trend data, current legislation and existing policies, and are therefore estimates that are subject to fluctuation and elements of uncertainty.

The estimate for forward years is calculated by using actual prisoner data over the past 20 years. The data is then analysed and separated into segments to undertake more complex statistical analysis. Remand calculations use a shorter period (seven years) due to fluctuations, to reflect changes in policy, legislation and policing practices.

As with other episodes where prisoner numbers have increased rapidly over short periods, the expectation is that this growth will plateau and therefore the overall growth in the prisoner population will return to normalised levels. Using these assumptions, when experiencing a rapid increase in numbers over a short period as has been the case most recently, the projected growth rate remains valid, but changes to the baseline can be made to reflect the position at any given time.

The current high level growth rate in the prison population will continue to require monitoring as a continuation of the elevated levels may require further increases in the baseline position.