Legislative Council Fifty-Second Parliament, First Session (52-1) 52 1 Parliament of South Australia Legislative Council published Question Time Population Strategy POPULATION STRATEGY The Hon. I.K. HUNTER Legislative Council POPULATION STRATEGY The Hon. I.K. HUNTER (14:45): I seek leave to make a brief explanation before asking the Minister for Urban Development and Planning a question about sustainable population growth. Leave granted. The Hon. I.K. HUNTER Legislative Council The Hon. I.K. HUNTER: At the weekend, prime minister Julia Gillard said that sustainable population growth would be a policy priority. In focusing on sustainable growth, the Prime Minister also pointed out that there are parts of Australia desperate for more people to fill skills shortages. A gross misreading of her comments has prompted some antidevelopment groups and individuals to urge the South Australian government to abandon the population projections that underpin the 30-Year Plan for Greater Adelaide. Will the minister explain how the government strategies will manage sustainable growth during the next three decades? The Hon. P. HOLLOWAY Legislative Council Minister for Mineral Resources Development, Minister for Urban Development and Planning, Minister for Industrial Relations, Minister Assisting the Premier in Public Sector Management The Hon. P. HOLLOWAY (Minister for Mineral Resources Development, Minister for Urban Development and Planning, Minister for Industrial Relations, Minister Assisting the Premier in Public Sector Management) (14:46): I thank the Hon. Mr Hunter for his important question and, yes, I was aware of some of the comments made by prime minister Julia Gillard at the weekend. There has been much public debate in recent months over projected population figures for Australia and also, of course, here in South Australia. Adelaide faces significant challenges in the near future, including demographic change, water supply issues, climate change and land use pressures. Recently released statistics advise that, at June 2009, the state population was 1.62 million, a population that grew in the preceding 12 months by 19,600 people, or a growth rate of 1.2 per cent. This current growth is in line with the 30-year plan growth projections. There are a number of challenges that South Australia will need to address in relation to the expected population growth of this state. The increase in population will require appropriate housing across the Greater Adelaide region. In putting forward a 30-Year Plan for Greater Adelaide, this government recognises the need to adopt a suite of measures to maximise land supply and increase housing options for the projected population. The 30-Year Plan for Greater Adelaide provides the most comprehensive planning strategy ever adopted by the state government and maximises South Australia's capacity to benefit from the opportunities arising from the growth in population during the next three decades. During the next 30 years, of course, the plan provides for a steady population growth of 560,000 people, the construction of 258,000 additional homes, economic growth of $127.7 billion and the creation of 282,000 additional jobs. The adoption of the 30-Year Plan for Greater Adelaide provides a responsible approach to sustainable population growth and the needs for housing, employment and the environment. The plan presents the spatial and land use framework that facilitates locating the majority of new housing in current urban areas particularly around transport corridors; creating mixed use precincts bringing together housing, jobs, transport and services; 14,200 hectares for new growth areas based upon mixed use development; higher densities and a greater mix of housing linked to transport corridors during the next 30 years; protecting at least 115,000 hectares of environmentally significant land and up to 375,000 hectares of primary production land; as well as 14 transit-oriented developments and more than 20 sites that incorporate transit-oriented development principles. The ageing of the South Australian population, which is ahead of the national average, is also a significant challenge to ensure our continued economic prosperity. By 2036, the percentage of South Australians aged 65 or older will increase from 18 per cent to 22 per cent. In addition, the number of South Australians aged 85 years or older is projected to more than treble in the same time period. South Australia's ageing population will impact significantly on the state's workforce in the future. I have been advised that nearly half of the public sector workforce will be considering retirement before 2030. That estimate comprises 46 per cent of male employees and 43 per cent of female employees who will be reaching retirement age between 2011 and 2026. It is quite obvious that we cannot make up the shortfall in skills caused by this demographic trend by our birth rate alone. Immigration has long been an important element of population growth in South Australia. Migration accounts for about 60 per cent of South Australia's annual population growth, with the remainder attributable to natural increase. Given low fertility rates, South Australia will continue to rely upon overseas migration as the principal source of population growth. There is a risk of falling standards of living or significant wage pressures from skills shortages if South Australia fails to attract and maintain a working age population. This is a genuine threat that has been acknowledged by the Prime Minister in her comments at the weekend. I was at a demographic conference 12 or 18 months ago where it was pointed out that, apart from Tasmania, South Australia would be the first state since the Industrial Revolution several centuries ago to reach the point where the number of people leaving our workforce would be greater than the number of people coming in—the first time in several hundred years—so it is going to have a big impact on the workforce of this state. Mr President, sustainable growth does not equate to no growth. I can assure you that we will not be going down that no growth path because we know that will lead to economic stagnation and an erosion of our enviable standard of living here in South Australia. The estimated population growth in the 30-year plan, taken as an average during the next three decades, equates to about 20 people a week more than Adelaide's current growth rate. We believe that is a measured pace of growth that is sustainable, as far as planning is concerned. It is a pace that, if we plan appropriately, we can accommodate by putting in place the required infrastructure as and when it is needed and development policies that will encourage the development of more housing within Adelaide's existing boundaries while limiting the need to expand at our city's fringes. To put that pace of growth into perspective, Adelaide's population grew in 2008-09 by 17,613. An increase in the population of greater Adelaide of 560,000 by 2036 requires an average annual growth of 18,677 persons. At a state level the South Australian Strategic Plan aims to increase South Australia's population to two million by 2050 with an interim goal of 1.64 million by 2014. This will be achieved by arresting the annual net interstate migration loss to zero and increasing net overseas migration gain to 8,500 a year by 2014 while maintaining a fertility rate of at least 1.7 births per woman. If you reject the idea that somehow we can freeze our population at the current level—or heaven forbid, go backwards—there are really only two valid choices when it comes to responding to our population growth: either we recognise that the population of South Australia will grow during the next 30 years and plan responsibly and sustainably to renew our suburbs and encourage new suburbs or we put our heads in the sand and allow unplanned and ad hoc developments. That, of course, would inevitably lead to a community that is not properly integrated with surrounding areas. That allows the inefficient and unsustainable use of land and ultimately will reduce the livability of our great city. Rather, we need a city where the government and the private sector invest in infrastructure and services in a timely manner. As I have said before, Governor Hindmarsh did not arrive at Holdfast Bay to find the Glenelg Tram waiting for him; instead, we need to appropriately gear our investment to the areas where the greatest priorities are identified within the 30-year plan. That is to say we do not need to plough our investment in infrastructure across the city into the first year of the plan but neither should we leave it until the 29^th year. Instead, the rationale for having a 30-year plan is to use the sustainable pace of growth as a guide for drafting a timetable for rolling out the investment where and when it is required. So when looked at in tandem with the Water for Good document, the government also has a framework for securing our water needs as the population grows. The challenge South Australia faces is to plan and guide the growth within the Greater Adelaide region in a way that provides a responsible, sustainable and prosperous future. This government believes that the 30-year plan provides us with a blueprint to meet the challenge. I welcome the comments made by the Prime Minister, particularly her comments about Australia not needing to be a big Australia. We agree and work with the commonwealth government on sustainable policy so that future population growth will be adequately planned and catered for.