Legislative Council Fifty-First Parliament, Third Session (51-3) 51 3 Parliament of South Australia Legislative Council published Question Time Prisons, Overcrowding PRISONS, OVERCROWDING The Hon. S.G. WADE Legislative Council PRISONS, OVERCROWDING The Hon. S.G. WADE (14:25): I seek leave to make a brief explanation before asking the Minister for Correctional Services a question about prison population forecasts. Leave granted. The Hon. S.G. WADE Legislative Council The Hon. S.G. WADE: Over the past month the minister has claimed that the government forecasts of prison numbers are more reliable than forecasts by SACOSS, OARS and the opposition. However, the government's own budget papers show that the government's projected average daily prison population has been very unreliable over the past two years. In the 2006-07 financial year the government predicted a 2 per cent increase in prisoner numbers, but the actual increase was 9 per cent (in other words, the government underestimated by a factor of four). In 2007-08, the government projected a 4 per cent increase in prisoner numbers, and the actual increase was 10 per cent (the government underestimated by a factor of 2½). My questions are: 1.	Can the minister explain why her department has failed so dramatically to predict prison numbers over the past two years? 2.	If the government is so confident in the department's projections, why has the minister failed to release them in response to my question on notice of 31 July 2007 and my question without notice of 29 July 2008? The Hon. CARMEL ZOLLO Legislative Council Minister for Correctional Services Minister for Road Safety Minister for Gambling Minister Assisting the Minister for Multicultural Affairs The Hon. CARMEL ZOLLO (Minister for Correctional Services, Minister for Road Safety, Minister for Gambling, Minister Assisting the Minister for Multicultural Affairs) (14:27): Those opposite really need to get over it and congratulate this government for our new prison infrastructure that will occur at Mobilong. We have had to defer it for two years but, as is to be expected, as a responsible government, we have also made $30 million available just in capital funding for the construction of two new cell blocks. Prior to that, in the 2008-09 budget, $35 million was made available for the addition of 209 beds. In 2007-08, money was also provided for 240 beds, or thereabouts. This government, again, needs to be congratulated. We have a future for prisons in the state and an interim strategy to ensure that there are enough cells and bed spaces. The Hon. S.G. Wade Legislative Council The Hon. S.G. Wade: They're 22 per cent overcrowded! The Hon. CARMEL ZOLLO Legislative Council The Hon. CARMEL ZOLLO: The honourable member keeps talking about a 22 per cent increase. We are talking about operational capacity, not built capacity. So, when the honourable member opposite talks about the government's failure to correctly project prison numbers, I say to him that his prison figures are not based on proper statistical forecasting; because what the department does—and this is already on the public record—is use a widely accepted technique of forecasting growth based on historical trend data, known changes to justice policies and, of course, demographic data. As does every other corrections jurisdiction, the department provides only a three-year forecast due to the uncertainty of actual growth. The numbers in our prisons, of course, vary on a day-to-day basis. As of yesterday, from memory, we had 93 spare beds across the system. Today we may have a few less, and that is given the fact that we lost 92 beds with a major incident at Port Augusta. So, again, I think the opposition needs to move on, because this government—as it should—has correctly funded the Department for Correctional Services as well as seeing new prison infrastructure happening in 2013-14.